Handicapping NFL games can be a challenge, and occasionally it can even be hilarious. In Week 9, we enjoyed success with a 4-1 performance that featured a pair of large underdogs winning outright. The funny part, though, is that the pick with the most closing-line value of the week was the single losing selection. In fact, the 49ers were routed by a Cardinals team without Kyler Murray and others, and that is a spot in which you just have to chuckle.
Alas, Week 10 is another opportunity to find value, and we’ll try to do just that. Before we do, here’s a glance at the season-long progress in this space.
- Last Week: 4-1
- 2021 Season: 26-18-1
Come get these winners.
Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots UNDER 45 points
The Browns are rounding into form defensively as the team’s health improves. Cleveland has allowed 15 points per game in the last three contests and the early-season struggles stemmed more from personnel absences than anything else. Meanwhile, the Patriots are a top-four scoring defense in the league, and it isn’t as if the Browns are *terribly* explosive on offense, particularly if Nick Chubb doesn’t play. Give me the under.
New Orleans Saints and Tennessee Titans UNDER 21.5 points in the first half
The full game under is also interesting here, but the Saints and Titans are very conservative. New Orleans has been leaning heavily on the ground in the first half of games, and Tennessee’s offense is still finding itself. On top of that, the Titans are playing surprisingly well defensively and the Saints have been undervalued on that side of the ball all season.
Atlanta Falcons (+9.5) over Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is better than Atlanta, but this line is a touch high. Yes, the Falcons can be maddening, but they’ve shown some rumblings in recent weeks as things get comfortable under Arthur Smith. Matt Ryan played very, very well a week ago, and the narrative will be toward a “bounce-back” for Dallas after a bad loss.
Detroit Lions (+8.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
I don’t believe in the Steelers offense. That’s the majority of what this is, but the Lions are also a team that has shown the willingness to push hard until the final whistle. With the backdoor potentially open, Detroit should be live here.
Minnesota Vikings (+3) over Los Angeles Chargers
This may be a last stand for the Vikings. They’ve lost two in a row to fall to 3-5 and things won’t get too much easier. Minnesota has the firepower to make this interesting but, as we’ve stated in this space many times, the Chargers don’t have homefield advantage. Should the Chargers be a full field goal favorite on a neutral over the Vikings? I don’t think so.