Mid-December is approaching and the stretch run of the NFL season is here. After a spotless performance in handicapping games during Week 12, the Week 13 slate wasn’t quite as kind. Still, it wasn’t a full-fledged disaster, and the process was reasonable enough to the point where 3-2, or even 4-1, seemed to be in play at times. Not to be outdone, the Week 14 slate is here with plenty of opportunity on the horizon.
Before we hand it off to a five-pack of selections, let’s see how the full season is going.
- Last Week: 2-3
- 2021 Season: 37-27-1
Come get these winners.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) over Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is going to be a popular “bounce back” play this week after a narrow loss to Pittsburgh last week. The Ravens are exceptionally banged up, however, and Cleveland is fresh off a bye week. The Browns are healthier on defense than they have been for a while, and buzz is that Baker Mayfield is feeling closer to himself. That isn’t everything, but this is a good buy point for the Browns with Cleveland laying less than a field goal.
Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers UNDER 20.5 points in the first half
There are trends here when it comes to divisional rematches, but the thing I like most about this is the two offenses in play. Carolina just fired Joe Brady and the franchise is openly talking about running the ball and grinding from a tempo perspective. Atlanta is without its top receiving weapon and they certainly aren’t flying high in terms of explosiveness. We may need a break or two in the red zone, but field goals are welcome.
New York Giants (+10) over Los Angeles Chargers
The Giants are still getting dinged for the injury to Daniel Jones, and I get that. New York may be playing Jake Fromm in this game and, if not, it’s Mike Glennon. Still, the Giants have a frisky defense, and the Chargers are in line to potentially miss both starting wide receivers. We’re also staying on-brand by fading Los Angeles at home and taking them on the road as we did last week. I wouldn’t buy this at less than 10, but godspeed to the Giants.
Buffalo Bills (+3.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buffalo’s offense flopped in a prime time spot against New England last week. As such, we’re probably getting an extra half-point (or full point) of value here, and this is a more favorable matchup for the pass-heavy Bills. Can they stop Tampa Bay? Maybe not, but snatching the full 3.5 points is useful.
Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) over Arizona Cardinals
The world is on Arizona here, with Los Angeles kind of scuffling for the last month or so. The Rams did pick up the pieces last week against Jacksonville, but this is a different kind of test. I do think Los Angeles will be ready to go after a lopsided loss at home against Arizona earlier in the season, but mostly I’m buying low on a team I still believe in.