The midpoint of the 2022 NFL season is nearly here, and the sledding is tough. Candidly, our NFL offerings this season have been a mess, perhaps due to some negative regression after five consecutive seasons with winning records in this space. Week 8 was no different with a maddening 2-3 performance but we’ll keep grinding with another five-game slate in Week 9.
Before we roll through the picks, let’s take stock.
- Week 8: 2-3
- 2022 Season: 18-22
Come get these winners.
Washington Commanders (+3.5) over Minnesota Vikings
We’re getting back to fundamentals with maybe the most hideous play on the board. Minnesota is 6-1 overall and flying high, while Washington isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. However, the Vikings have won the last five games by eight points or fewer, and Minnesota’s defense has enjoyed some positive fortune this season. I do understand not wanting to back Washington here, but it’s the only side we’ll take.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) over Atlanta Falcons
Full disclosure, I’m a Falcons fan. It’s been a wild ride to 4-4 for Atlanta, and the offense is far more efficient than anyone (including myself) projected. Don’t that let stop you from realizing that the Falcons are terrible on defense, which is notable in this game. The Chargers are missing wide receiver weapons, but Justin Herbert exists. Los Angeles also has the best ATS record (17-10) in the NFL as a road team since the start of the 2019 season, and I roundly fade the Chargers at home while buying them on the road. That applies here, and we’re also buying low on Los Angeles while selling the (mild) buzz in Atlanta.
TEASER: Cincinnati Bengals (-1) over Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) over Las Vegas Raiders
We hit the semi-weekly teaser in Week 8 and we’re going to back to it. I have substantial confidence in the Bengals, even without Ja’Marr Chase, bouncing back and taking care of business at home against Carolina. Jacksonville may be a bit more perilous, but the Jags have been competitive even in losses, and that’s a side I like at home against the scuffling Raiders.
Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 46.5 points
At the time of this post, we don’t know who’s playing quarterback for Tennessee. Malik Willis is a substantial downgrade from Ryan Tannehill in terms of spread value, but either way, this under looks appetizing. Tennessee has every reason to attempt to control the clock and shorten the game by playing quite slowly. Kansas City’s defense is fully capable of keeping Tennessee in check even if Tannehill plays, and the Chiefs won’t need to keep the pedal on the floor to win.
Baltimore Ravens and New Orleans Saints UNDER 48 points
Baltimore’s defensive numbers are a touch scary, but this number is too high. The Ravens will grind it out, as they usually do on the ground, and the Saints are generally a team I prefer to lean under with. 48 is a fairly key number that I’d want to grab, but I like it there. We have our principles.