The only series in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs that wasn’t a sweep was the one most expected to end in four games, as the Magic swiped Game 1 against the Bucks before Milwaukee rattled off four straight wins to set up a meeting with the Miami Heat in the second round.
Thus far in the Bubble the Bucks haven’t looked like the dominant force they were prior to the hiatus, and, coupled with their disappointing finishes the last two years in the playoffs, there’s plenty of chatter about the Heat being able to pull off an upset in the semis. There are a variety of reasons for this, from the recent form of both teams to Miami being a stylistic nightmare for the Bucks (and the Heat being 2-1 against Milwaukee this season), but it begs the question: How vulnerable is Milwaukee to an upset?
For many pundits, the answer is “very,” as the Heat have become a trendy pick to meet the winner of the Boston-Toronto series, while oddsmakers still lean heavily in favor of Milwaukee, who are -385 favorites to win the series (implied odds of 79 percent). How Miami can find their way into that 21 percent is reliant on a few factors that could swing things in favor of the Heat.
Three-Point Shooting
This is the chief reason many point to Miami as to having a very real chance to beat the Bucks, who make protecting the paint their top focus on defense (and are elite at doing so). While they collapse into the paint to protect the rim, they are willing to give up three-point shots and Miami was the second best shooting team in the league this season, hitting 37.9 percent of their shots beyond the arc. No team gave up more three-point attempts on average than the Bucks, allowing teams to hoist 39.3 attempts per game in the regular season, as teams hit 35.5 percent of those shots. However, that’s also just the recipe for most good defensive teams, as the three teams behind Milwaukee in threes allowed are Toronto, Miami, and the Clippers. The key for is who they give those attempts to, and for Miami it may come down to whether their secondary and tertiary options can sustain their shooting over the course of the series.
The Bucks will likely place Wesley Matthews on Duncan Robinson and have him effectively face guard the best shooter in the league, insisting he is the one that doesn’t provide helpside defense to not leave themselves vulnerable to Robinson’s capabilities of stringing together five, six (or more) threes. Expect Milwaukee to funnel shots in the direction of Jae Crowder, a 29.3 percent three-point shooter on the season, and Kendrick Nunn, a 35 percent shooter in his rookie season (provided Nunn gets real playing time in this series, which he may not after being scratched for three of four against Indiana).
In their three meetings this season, Nunn has taken 23 three-pointers against Milwaukee, the most of anyone on the Heat, making eight of them. Robinson has 21 attempts, making 11, and Kelly Olynyk is 8-for-16 in those meetings — he, too, will get some opportunities but his emergence as a 40 percent shooter has the Bucks trying to run him off the line more, as evidenced by just seven of those attempts coming in the last two meetings. Crowder, meanwhile is a ridiculous 9-for-15 against the Bucks, as they are happy to let him fire away. Given his season long percentage (and career marks from deep), that’s the right choice, but his shooting has, quite literally, tipped the scales in Miami’s favor. It’s not as though it all falls on Crowder, but he is certainly the one Milwaukee targets in their gameplan as the player they want to have letting it fly on this Miami team. If he continues to light up the Bucks, Miami has a very good chance. If he regresses to the mean and looks more like his season-long numbers, the Heat will have a much more difficult time.
On the flip side, Milwaukee’s shooting has been a major factor in their success against the Heat, as they’ve shot 31.5 percent and 20.4 percent from distance in their two losses and 40.5 percent in their lone win. Miami’s only shot against the Bucks is to win the three-point battle, and they certainly have the personnel to do it.
Giannis vs. Bam Vs. The Foul Game
The most fascinating one-on-one battle in this series belongs to Giannis Antetokounmpo going up against Bam Adebayo, who is capable of spectacular defensive performances against the MVP. In Miami’s two wins, Adebayo has managed to stay out of foul trouble against Giannis and, thus, stay on the floor to match minutes with him, playing 37 and 38 minutes. In their lone loss, which came recently in the Bubble, Adebayo picked up five fouls in 22 minutes of play. Giannis is a master of getting to the free throw line, but Miami has done a superb job of keeping him away from the charity stripe, as he’s had just 20 attempts in three games — he’s taken 13 three-point attempts in those games and missed all of them, indicating how well they’ve frustrated him to settling for jump shots.
However, in that loss, once Adebayo was out of the game, Giannis marched to the rim and dominated. While he still only had nine free throw attempts, he feasted in the restricted area and was the catalyst for the second half reversal that saw the Bucks run away with a 14-point win after trailing by 17 at the half. Adebayo will have to be able to stay on the floor for Miami to have a chance at frustrating Giannis and getting him to settle for outside shots rather than camping out in the restricted area where he’s virtually unstoppable.
Goran Dragic vs. Eric Bledsoe
To be clear, Khris Middleton can’t play the way he did against Orlando for the first four games if Milwaukee is going to win this series or any others, but his performance in Game 5 was much more in tune with what the All-Star did this season. What’s more concerning is the point guard matchup in this series, where thus far Goran Dragic has outplayed Eric Bledsoe in the two meetings he was healthy — which were also the two wins for Miami. Dragic has been sensational in the playoffs, bringing an added dynamic to this Miami offense, and in turn making Nunn’s minutes not as needed. Bledsoe hasn’t been a great scorer thus far in the playoffs, but he’s been a good facilitator and, most importantly, seemed to turn up his defensive play along with the rest of the Bucks to close out that series.
Bledsoe doesn’t need to win the scoring matchup with Dragic, but he just simply can’t be played off the floor. He has to be able to knock down some spot-up looks when the defense collapses on Giannis and Middleton, but mostly he has to be confident off the dribble and attacking downhill to open up looks for others, which he was doing well against Orlando. On defense, Bledsoe has to find a way to bother Dragic, who got very comfortable against Indiana, scoring 20 points in all four games, often stepping into a major role in the fourth quarter when Miami was desperate for some offensive creativity. Bledsoe is capable of being a defensive nightmare for opposing point guards and he has to step up into that role, at minimum, in this series, even if he’s not producing a ton offensively. If Dragic continues to score 20 a night as he did against the Pacers, that is an added dynamic to their three-point specialists that the Bucks simply cannot afford to let Miami have.