As happens every April as the NFL Draft approaches, the same conversations and arguments about the value of the running back position in the modern game get re-litigated.
There are plenty who are staunchly in the “never draft a running back in the first round” camp, while others are willing to allow for exceptions to the rule based on a truly unique talent. The 2023 Draft has just that kind of back in Texas’ Bijan Robinson, but is also a deep class that could very well stoke the fires of the value argument further, as there are some mid-to-late round players that could be highly productive at the next level.
Here we are going to look at some of our favorite backs who could help a team immediately in the backfield, because while running back may not be the premium position it once was, it’s a position overflowing with talent coming into the league every year — which is part of what complicates things for guys seeking out big paydays.
The Top Dog: Bijan Robinson, Texas
If this were the mid-2000s, Robinson would be in the mix for going No. 1 overall in this Draft. That’s how good he is as a prospect. Robinson is a special mix of speed and power and is a true three-down back because of his abilities to run between the tackles and be a receiver out of the backfield. Last year at Texas he rushed for 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns on 258 carries (6.1 yards per carry) and added 314 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 19 receptions (16.5 yards per catch). It’s hard to find things you don’t like about Robinson as a complete back. His vision is elite, his footwork impeccable, he has excellent speed (4.46 in the 40), terrific patience, good hands, and he’s got the size to hold up in blitz protection at 5’11, 215 pounds. He is, truly, a complete back.
On most big boards he’s somewhere in the top-5, with many having him as the second-best prospect overall behind Will Anderson. He will not go that high because of the aforementioned value issue facing running backs, but I expect someone in the late first round who has fewer glaring needs and could use an upgrade at running back to scoop him up and be very happy they did so.
The Next Best: Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama
Any of the teams that spend time watching film on any of the top Alabama offensive guys, whether that’s Bryce Young or their various OL prospects, are likely going to come away thinking about Gibbs. He was the constant safety valve for Young, particularly when the oddly porous Tide OL broke down, catching 44 passes for 444 yards and three touchdowns, and also showed off his game-breaking speed when he was able to bounce a run to the outside, toting the rock for 926 yards and seven touchdowns on 151 carries. Gibbs will enter the league with fewer miles on his tires than a lot of the top backs, thanks in part to playing in two places — Alabama and Georgia Tech — that used running backs by committee rather than asking him to be a bell cow.
At 5’9, 199 pounds, he’s not the biggest back and durability will be a question teams have for him, but his athleticism is special — he ran a 4.36 at the Combine. His pass-catching ability and versatility is as good as it gets in this class and someone will likely see him as a Day 2 value to add a change of pace to their backfield rotation.
Boom Or Bust: Devon Achane, Texas A&M
Achane is a similar back to Gibbs, albeit just a bit smaller (5’8.5, 188 pounds) and just a bit faster (4.32 in the 40). He was the bright point for a disappointing Texas A&M offense last season, rushing for 1,102 yards and eight touchdowns on 196 carries (5.4 ypc). His explosive play ability was muted by the Aggies’ struggles in the passing game, which led defenses to focus in on Achane more and more as the season went on, particularly as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
As a freshman and sophomore, Achane was the Aggies’ home run hitter, but this year, he averaged just 5.4 yards per catch. That’s not ideal for someone with his size and speed, but I feel like that was more an issue of Texas A&M’s offense around him than an Achane issue. Still, there are enough questions to cause him to dip a bit in this draft, but once Gibbs goes off the board, he will be a worthwhile swing for someone looking for that kind of big play ability from a change of pace back.
Day 3 Swing: Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State and Tyjae Spears, Tulane
Vaughn and Spears are two highly productive college backs that will fall to Day 3 (or go undrafted) but make two teams very happy whenever they get brought into camp. We’ll start with Vaughn, who is the latest in a long line of highly productive, undersized players to come out of Kansas State. At 5’5, 179 pounds, he is as small a back as you’ll see. That said, he’s compact and strong for his height, and his production at K-State, where he was the guy is pretty insane.
Over the last two seasons with the Wildcats, Vaughn combined for 3,808 yards from scrimmage and 34 touchdowns. That’s not gimmicky production in a Power 5 conference, and his last two games — 46 carries, 263 yards, and tw0 TDs against TCU and Alabama — further prove that point. I expect him to land on a roster and stick once a team on Day 3 moves past his measureables and decides to bring in a “capital F” Football Player.
Then there’s Spears, who is 5’10, 201 pounds but runs bigger than that. He broke out this year to lead Tulane to the Cotton Bowl where they beat USC, as Spears absolutely showed out in the bowl game with 205 yards rushing on 17 carries. On the season, Spears rushed for 1,581 yards and 19 touchdowns, adding 256 yards receiving to that total as well. He is not afraid to of contact and has explosiveness once he hits the second level, with good stop-start burst to turn a change of direction into a big play. He doesn’t have the same top-end speed of an Achane or Gibbs, but he explodes in and out of breaks — as displayed by a 39-inch vertical and 10’5 broad jump at the Combine — and showed his durability and high productivity for Tulane, even against big-time opponents.